The American Vote
2024 result

1992
2024

Era

Modern Polarization

Close elections in a divided country.

Reading the Modern Polarization

The Modern Polarization era spans 9 presidential elections, 1992–2024. The atlas frames it this way — Close elections in a divided country.

The Democratic party won 5 of the 9 contests, more than any other party in the era. It opens with the 1992 election (Bill Clinton) and closes with 2024 (Donald Trump). A pivotal cycle was 2000 — The closest modern Electoral College fight.

9 cycles in this era

Modern Polarization
1992
Bill Clinton
Democratic · 370 EV · 43.0% pop
Perot won 18.9% — best third-party popular vote since TR 1912; Clinton won with only 43%
Modern Polarization
1996
Bill Clinton
Democratic · 379 EV · 49.2% pop
First Democrat re-elected since FDR; Perot ran again but won only half his 1992 support
Modern Polarization
2000
George W. Bush
Republican · 271 EV · 47.9% pop
Bush lost popular vote but won presidency; Supreme Court decided election; Nader spoiler in Florida
Modern Polarization
2004
George W. Bush
Republican · 286 EV · 50.7% pop
First popular vote majority for a Republican since 1988; Swift Boat ads defined opposition research
Modern Polarization
2008
Barack Obama
Democratic · 365 EV · 52.9% pop
First African American president; financial crisis collapsed McCain's lead in September
Modern Polarization
2012
Barack Obama
Democratic · 332 EV · 51.1% pop
Obama's data-driven campaign pioneered modern voter targeting; Romney's '47 percent' remark proved fatal
Modern Polarization
2016
Donald Trump
Republican · 304 EV · 46.1% pop
Trump lost popular vote by 2.9 million yet won EC; 7 faithless electors — most since 1872
Modern Polarization
2020
Joe Biden
Democratic · 306 EV · 51.3% pop
Record turnout (66.6%); most votes ever (81.3M); Trump's refusal to concede led to January 6 Capitol riot
Modern Polarization
2024
Donald Trump
Republican · 312 EV · 49.8% pop
Trump became second president to win non-consecutive terms (like Cleveland); first Republican to win popular vote since 2004

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Classroom

All 300 packets, free

60 cycles · K-2 through AP · open download.

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Poster

Wall-worthy print · coming soon

Every-election grid and single-state series in the works.

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Read further

Curated picks

Why We're Polarized

Ezra Klein

How modern American politics got this way.

Buy on Amazon →

The Bitter End

John Sides et al.

How Trump and the 2020 election reshaped the parties.

Buy on Amazon →

Confidence Man

Maggie Haberman

Trump in his own habitat.

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