1992
2024
Era
Modern Polarization
Close elections in a divided country.
9 cycles in this era
Modern Polarization
1992
Bill Clinton
Perot won 18.9% — best third-party popular vote since TR 1912; Clinton won with only 43%
Modern Polarization1996
Bill Clinton
First Democrat re-elected since FDR; Perot ran again but won only half his 1992 support
Modern Polarization2000
George W. Bush
Bush lost popular vote but won presidency; Supreme Court decided election; Nader spoiler in Florida
Modern Polarization2004
George W. Bush
First popular vote majority for a Republican since 1988; Swift Boat ads defined opposition research
Modern Polarization2008
Barack Obama
First African American president; financial crisis collapsed McCain's lead in September
Modern Polarization2012
Barack Obama
Obama's data-driven campaign pioneered modern voter targeting; Romney's '47 percent' remark proved fatal
Modern Polarization2016
Donald Trump
Trump lost popular vote by 2.9 million yet won EC; 7 faithless electors — most since 1872
Modern Polarization2020
Joe Biden
Record turnout (66.6%); most votes ever (81.3M); Trump's refusal to concede led to January 6 Capitol riot
Modern Polarization2024
Donald Trump
Trump became second president to win non-consecutive terms (like Cleveland); first Republican to win popular vote since 2004
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Curated picksWhy We're Polarized
Ezra Klein
How modern American politics got this way.
Buy on Amazon →The Bitter End
John Sides et al.
How Trump and the 2020 election reshaped the parties.
Buy on Amazon →Confidence Man
Maggie Haberman
Trump in his own habitat.
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