2004
What it would have taken
Counterfactual arithmetic from each state’s recorded popular vote. It measures how close the result was; it does not predict what voters would have done.
Ohio was the tipping point. Line up the states Bush carried from widest margin to narrowest: Ohio’s 20 electoral votes are the ones that took Bush to 274, past the 270 majority. Bush carried it by 118,599 votes (2.11 points).
The cheapest set of Bush’s states that would have given Kerry a majority is Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado — 21 electoral votes. Bush’s combined margin in these states was 115,570 votes.
A margin is overturned when more than half of it switches sides, so this path would have needed at least 57,787 Bush voters to vote for Kerry instead, in exactly those states. Had that happened, the count would have been Kerry 272, Bush 265.
| State | EV | Margin | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 7 | 10,059 | 0.67 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 5,988 | 0.79 |
| Colorado | 9 | 99,523 | 4.67 |
| Total | 21 | 115,570 |
Margin = the winner’s votes minus the runner-up’s in that state. Points = that margin as a share of every vote cast there.
Flipping Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada (Bush’s combined margin 37,547 votes) would have left nobody at 270: Kerry 268, Bush 269. The Twelfth Amendment would then have sent the choice to the House of Representatives, voting one vote per state delegation.
That costs less than the winning path above because it needs fewer electoral votes: Kerry gains just enough to stop Bush, not enough to win.
3 states Bush carried were each big enough on their own to have elected Kerry: Florida (27), Ohio (20) and Texas (34).
Electoral votes in parentheses: the block each state cast for Bush. This uses electoral votes only, not margins.
Nationally, Bush received 62,040,610 votes and Kerry 59,028,444, so Bush finished 3,012,166 votes ahead of Kerry (2.46 points). Bush won the Electoral College 286–251.
How these are defined
- Flip
- Exactly what a click on the map does: the electoral votes a state cast for the candidate who carried it move to another candidate. District and faithless electors stay as cast.
- Margin
- The winner’s votes minus the runner-up’s in a state, from the state’s recorded popular vote. Points are that margin divided by every vote cast in the state.
- Tipping point
- Order the states the winner carried from widest margin to narrowest and add up their electoral votes; the tipping point is the state where the running total first reaches a majority. Its margin here is over the next-best candidate in that state.
- Narrowest path
- Of every set of states the winner carried, the one that would have given the runner-up at least 270 electoral votes with the smallest combined margin. Found by an exact search, not by taking the closest states in order. A tie or any result short of 270 does not count as a win.
- Switched voters
- One voter changing sides moves a margin by two, so a margin of N is overturned when more than N ÷ 2 voters switch. The minimum is the sum of that, state by state. Real elections never move this neatly; this is arithmetic, not a forecast.
- No majority
- When nobody reaches 270, including a tie, the House of Representatives chooses the president, one vote per state delegation.
The map is a toy: anything you flip on it is invented. Clicking a state hands its electoral votes to the next candidate on the 2004 ballot, then to the next, and finally back to the candidate who really carried it — nothing here changes what happened.
- Only the block of electoral votes a state cast for its own winner moves. District and faithless electors stay as cast, because individual electors — not the state — cast them.
- The majority line is 270, the threshold 2004 actually used, out of 538 electoral votes.
- If nobody reaches 270, the Twelfth Amendment sends the choice to the House of Representatives — which is how 1800 and 1824 really ended.
- The address bar carries your scenario, so a link you copy opens on the same map. Reset, or a link with no scenario, restores the real result.