Comparisons
Thirty head-to-head pairings.
Landslides next to landslides. Contested counts side by side. Two cycles, one question: what changed?
1860 vs 2020
1860 vs 2020 — 160 years apart
realignment
1860 vs 1864
1860 vs 1864 — Civil War cycles
incumbent-war
1896 vs 1932
1896 vs 1932 — Gold standard to New Deal
realignment
1932 vs 1936
1932 vs 1936 — FDR consolidates
incumbent
1948 vs 1968
1948 vs 1968 — The Solid South cracks
realignment
1980 vs 1984
1980 vs 1984 — Reagan twice
incumbent
2008 vs 2016
2008 vs 2016 — Obama to Trump
realignment
2016 vs 2020
2016 vs 2020 — Trump in, Trump out
incumbent
1936 vs 1984
1936 vs 1984 — Two 525-EV landslides
landslide
1972 vs 1984
1972 vs 1984 — Forty-nine-state sweeps
landslide
1820 vs 1936
1820 vs 1936 — Monroe to Roosevelt
landslide
1928 vs 1932
1928 vs 1932 — Hoover up, Hoover out
incumbent-loss
1964 vs 1972
1964 vs 1972 — LBJ and Nixon route opponents
landslide
1876 vs 2000
1876 vs 2000 — Contested counts
contested
2000 vs 2016
2000 vs 2016 — EC and popular vote diverge
split
1888 vs 2000
1888 vs 2000 — Popular winners lose
split
1960 vs 2020
1960 vs 2020 — Razor margins
close
1968 vs 2024
1968 vs 2024 — A divided country
polarization
2000 vs 2004
2000 vs 2004 — Bush twice
incumbent
1789 vs 2024
1789 vs 2024 — First and latest
bookend
1932 vs 2008
1932 vs 2008 — Depression and recession
crisis
1912 vs 1992
1912 vs 1992 — Third-party shocks
third-party
1976 vs 2008
1976 vs 2008 — Post-crisis Democrats
comeback
1980 vs 2008
1980 vs 2008 — Reagan and Obama
ideological
1992 vs 1996
1992 vs 1996 — Clinton twice
incumbent
1984 vs 2012
1984 vs 2012 — Reagan landslide vs Obama squeaker
contrast
2012 vs 2020
2012 vs 2020 — Obama and Biden coalitions
party-arc
1860 vs 1932
1860 vs 1932 — Two realignment moments
realignment
1916 vs 2000
1916 vs 2000 — Single-state cliffhangers
close
1828 vs 2016
1828 vs 2016 — Outsider populists win
populist